Capacity can push international HE student increases for USA, as growth markets identified

The Outlook 2030 Brief, The U.S. and International Education report was released earlier this month by IIE, examining the implications and opportunities for the USA as global higher education mobility increases in the coming years.

Growing markets

Due to demographic trends of large numbers of tertiary-aged populations forecast and a shortage of spaces for domestic higher education, the authors identified 10 ’emerging international student markets to watch’.

These included the African markets of Ghana and Nigeria, with potential year-on-year growth rates of 12-17 per cent, as well as Asian countries Bangladesh (11-15 per cent year-on-year growth projected), India (10-14), Iran (10-14), Nepal (12-16), Pakistan (10-14) and Vietnam (6-10).

Brazil (7-11) and Mexico (8-12) in Latin America were also identified as key markets in outbound student mobility over the next six years. Agents in Brazil recently spoke to StudyTravel Magazine about outbound market growth, particularly in career-focused programs and higher education.

IIE added that refugees and displaced students attending higher education in the USA were likely to grow and represent “another potential source of diverse and talented students”.

USA’s capacity to host

The authors commented that there is far greater capacity for growth in the USA than in the major competitor nations. Overseas students constituted only six per cent of all higher education students in the USA in 2022/23, compared with 22 per cent in the UK, 24 per cent in Australia and 30 per cent in Canada, the authors said.

For this to happen, growth needs to occur across all types of institutions, IIE argued. Currently around 100 higher education institutions account for more than half of the students in the USA.

They said that students hosting less than 1,000 students currently could seek to triple enrolment by 2030, and those with between 1,000 and 7,999 students could aim to double international student numbers. Meanwhile, an additional 500 institutions not currently engaged in overseas recruitment could begin hosting international students.

Institutions in the USA are keen to expand their global reach, IIE said. In the Fall Snapshot survey of 630 institutions, 92 per cent said they wanted to expand international student numbers in the next five years, and 82 per cent were committing the same or more funding to outreach efforts in the current year.

USA growth forecasts

IIE said that ‘robust growth’ of 8-10 per cent per year, as has been achieved in the last two years and is forecast for the next year, would lead to two million students in the USA by 2030.

Steady growth of 5-10 per cent per year would mean 1.7 million students by 2020, while a slowed growth rate of 2-3 per cent per annum would lead to 1.3 million students.

The trajectory of international students in the USA since 1970/71, with a record anticipated in 2023/24. Graphic source – IIE.

Ingredients for success

IIE said that the key factors in the USA increasing its number and share of globally mobile students include prioritizing internationalization at the highest levels of institutions and government, and investment in student support services, including accommodation to facilitate the growth, as well as advocacy efforts to increase student visas.

Institutions need to recruit in a broader range of markets and should also consider financial support and options for cost-conscious prospective students, they added.

As reported last week, a recent survey of international education sector professionals in the USA highlighted the demand for and benefits of a national strategy for international student recruitment, as well as some of the measures that stakeholders said would boost the attractiveness of the USA, such as changes to work rights and student visas.

Current trends

In the 2022/23 academic year, higher education institutions in the USA hosted 1,057,188 international students, representing an almost full recovery from the Covid-19 pandemic. Based on the Fall Snapshot survey of 630 institutions on 2023/24 trends, the authors predict a record level of enrolment for the current year.

Among the top 25 source markets, eight were at an all-time high in 2022/23: Bangladesh, Colombia, Ghana, India, Italy, Nepal, Pakistan, and Spain.