India optimistic over F-1 visa and green cards under Trump

While the country is already home to over 268,000 Indian students, as per the latest Open Doors report, Indians also make up the highest number of applicants for the H1B visa, which allows non-US citizens to work temporarily.

During his first term, Trump’s history with policies concerning international students and H1B saw its ups and downs, impacting India and other emerging markets.

The Trump administration previously placed a rule on its regulatory agenda to restrict Optional Practical Training, which allows international students to work in their field for 12-36 months either while studying or after graduation.

Advisors from Trump’s first term also mooted restricting international students pursuing STEM degrees from working for up to three years in the US on their study visas.

Although the proposed policies never saw the light of day, consultants believe the Trump administration’s increased scrutiny of F-1 visas could continue in his second term.

“During Trump’s previous term, we observed a tightening of policies affecting international students, leading to a noticeable decline in student numbers between 2016 and 2020,” said Jasminder Khanna, co-founder, Gresham Global.

“It would not be surprising to witness a similar pattern emerge this time, should those policies return.”

According to an analysis by the National Foundation for American Policy, international student enrolment at US universities declined by 7.2% between the 2016/17 and 2019/20 academic years.

During the same period, the enrolment of Indian students in master’s level science and engineering programs at US universities fell by almost 40%.

Despite Trump’s record, his mid-podcast promise to offer overseas green cards after they graduate has left many in the sector expecting a more positive stance on international students during his second term.

When asked if the US can import the best and brightest around the world if he wins, Trump told listeners that students graduating from the country should automatically get a green card.

“You graduate from a college, I think you should get automatically as part of your diploma a green card to be able to stay in this country and that includes junior colleges too,” said Trump, during his appearance on the All-In podcast in June 2024.

According to Abhijit Zaveri, founder and director, Career Mosaic, Trump’s statement regarding green cards indicates a more “relaxed approach” towards immigration, especially for Indians.

“Trump has previously indicated support for a more accessible Green Card pathway for F-1 student visa holders, which could translate into a more relaxed immigration policy, particularly for highly skilled graduates,” Zaveri told The PIE News.

“Such changes could provide an invaluable boost for Indians pursuing advanced degrees in the US, making it easier to transition into the American workforce and contribute to its innovation landscape.”

Saurabh Arora, founder and CEO, University Living, believes the contribution of Indian students to the US economy will be recognized during Trump’s second term.

“As international students contribute more than $45 billion annually to the U.S. economy – including over $12.5bn from Indian students – their impact is clear, both economically and culturally,” said Arora.

“Looking ahead, there’s hope that the new administration will continue to support pathways for talented students to transition from education to meaningful careers.”

Trump has traditionally shared cordial relations with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, with both heads of state even going as far as hosting mega-rallies for one other in their respective countries.

After Trump’s election win, Indian Foreign Minister S Jaishankar refuted any apprehensions about India’s ability to work with the US under his presidency, unlike other countries that are “nervous”.

“There is a generally positive mood in India since Indian PM Modi and President Trump have had a rapport and in recent months. Trump had signaled preference for Indian skilled migrants and had also mentioned fast-tracking green cards for eligible international students,” said Ravi Lochan Singh, managing director, Global Reach.

“It is clear that his statements on immigrants have mostly been anti-illegal immigrants and not skilled migrants.”

Amid deepening conflict between the US and China, Chinese students have faced multiple challenges in studying at American universities.

Many Chinese graduate students, researchers and exchange students have been prohibited from pursuing academic opportunities in the US under Trump – a policy maintained by the current President Joe Biden.

With India increasingly being seen as a counterweight to China, Aritra Ghosal, founder and director, OneStep Global, believes security concerns about the latter may see India and South Asia emerge as “prominent destinations” for educational pursuits.

Despite Trump and his proponents maintaining that they support legal immigration, denial rates for H1B petitions rose during his term.

Data from the US Department of Labor showed that the denial rate for H1B visas rose from 6% in 2016 to 21% in 2019.

“A proposal to grant green cards to graduates of US institutions presents a promising opportunity for international students hoping to build careers in the US,” said Namita Mehta, president, The Red Pen.

“However, students should anticipate stricter H1B regulations and “extreme vetting” measures – policies Trump previously introduced that increased the scrutiny for employment visas.”

Trump’s campaign has increasingly targeted diversity, equity, and inclusion initiatives, which could significantly impact US higher education.

“Trump historically has opposed certain diversity, equity, and inclusion (DEI) initiatives in higher education and many US universities have established DEI offices that support programs for students from diverse backgrounds,” said Karan Gupta, founder, Karan Gupta Education Foundation.

“Cuts or restrictions to these DEI programs could reduce the availability of resources aimed at fostering a welcoming and inclusive environment. Similarly, there could be fewer scholarships and grants for students from underrepresented backgrounds.”

Amid reports of rising study visa denial rates and safety concerns among Indian students, students and consultants maintain a wait-and-watch approach to how Trump’s policies will shape study abroad opportunities in the US.