The Trump effect and global student mobility

The “Dear Colleague” letter will impact international students who are considering studying in the US. The US is a popular destination. One in four Australian students choose it as a study abroad destination.

Until now.

We must be alert to the impacts of the US administration’s policies trickling through to university departments, from international offices to research offices.

The immediate impact falls on universities who accept US students on financial aid.  The financial impact on most Australian universities is not material.  On the upside, it could be, as privately funded students seek to flee the US.  That’s what our partner Voyage is picking up in its real-time student sentiment tracker, The Social Source.

We know that the President is no fan of DEI. The “Dear Colleague” letter implies that universities receiving US students on financial aid should ditch DEI policies.

We urge them not to.

That request would ruin the ability to have policies to encourage indigenous students to access higher education, to support women into leadership positions, or to take good care of LGBTQIAI+ people.

At some point our sector must take a stand against these US intrusions, as many other sectors haven’t.

It is not beyond our wit to push back.

We asked 3 senior international education people at Australian unis for quotes on this article. All refused as they required media “approval”.

Timidity is not the answer.

Our partners at Voyage monitor international student sentiment through The Social Source, checking in to see what international students think. The Social Source aggregates the thousands of conversations international students are having each day on social media to monitor real time sentiment. And identify trends.

Let’s dive into the real time emotions of international students.

From fear to sadness

Between late 2023 and early 2025, discussions about studying in the US fluctuated significantly.

The ‘Trump Effect’ now dominates student conversations on international education.

International students are uncertain, fearful and worried about Trump’s policies, leading to heightened concerns about financial struggles, and the need for stronger student support systems.

Economic considerations are important as institutions and the workforce debate the role of international students in shaping the US economy intensify.

Sound familiar? We have this debate in Australia, and international students are listening very intently. International students are listening to every policy and political announcement. This is a surprising finding from The Social Source.

Discussions amongst international students about Trump himself surged in November 2024, coinciding with multiple universities issuing travel advisories for international students ahead of his inauguration.

While student conversations dropped off in the next few months, March 2025 saw an explosive 1,269% surge in student concerns about the US as a study destination.

Sentiment analysis underscores the emotional toll of these developments. Fear levels peaked in late 2024, as international students worried about Trump’s potential impact, compounded by university warnings urging students to enter the US before his inauguration.

Student sentiment has turned from fear to sadness this March. Sentiment remains reactive to political shifts, reinforcing the impact of the ‘Trump Effect’ on student mobility.

The Lygon Group and Voyage will continue to keep a close eye on how ‘the Trump effect’ is roiling global student mobility.

As Australia hurtles towards a federal election in which both sides are promising caps-light or caps-heavy limits on international student enrolments, we should not squander an opportunity to be seen as a more welcoming, higher value proposition than international education in the US.